http://ibnlive.in.com/news/andhra-poll-tracker-ysrcp-to-get-1119-seats-tdp-915-congress-59/446929-37-64.html
New Delhi: Andhra Pradesh has been a divided state ever since the decision of bifurcating it to create Telangana was announced. Even the voting pattern in Lok Sabha elections is likely to reveal that Telangana and Seemandhra regions will go in different directions.
The YSR Congress Party of YS Jagan Mohan Reddy is expected to win 11-19 seats, Telugu Desam Party (TDP) 9-15, Congress 5-9, Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) 4-8 and other parties are likely to get 0-4 seats, according to the projections provided by Chennai Mathematical Institute's Director Professor Rajeeva Karandikar.
ALSO SEE Tamil Nadu poll tracker: AIADMK may win 15-23, DMK 7-13, Congress 1-5
But Andhra, which sends 42 MPs to the Lok Sabha, also shows a great deal of regional variations with the ruling Congress leading in Telangana and the YSR Congress Party way ahead in Seemandhra.
In Telangana, the Congress is expected to get 33 per cent votes, the TRS 23 per cent, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 11 per cent, YSRCP 1 per cent, TDP 13 per cent, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) 3 per cent and others are expected to get 16 per cent respectively, as per the Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll.
ALSO SEE Kerala election tracker: Congress-led UDF to win 12-18 seats, LDF 2-8
After the Union Cabinet cleared Telangana draft, the Congress has gained 6 per cent votes in Telangana. The YSRCP, which is opposing the new state tooth and nail, seems to have lost whatever minor support it had in the region. Telangana region has 17 Lok Sabha and 119 Assembly seats.
In Seemandhra region, comprising Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema, the pro-united Andhra party YSRCP is miles ahead of its rivals. The YSRCP is likely to get 41 per cent votes in Seemandhra.
ALSO SEE Karnataka poll tracker: Congress to get 10-18 seats, BJP 6-10, JDS 4-8
The TDP is projected to get 28 per cent votes from this region. The ruling Congress may come third with just 16 per cent votes. The BJP has gained 7 per cent and is expected to get 9 per cent votes, the AAP 1 per cent votes and others 5 per cent votes.
Overall scenario in united Andhra
The Congress is likely to get 24 per cent votes. The YSR Congress Party is expected to get 22 per cent, TDP 21 per cent, TRS 11 per cent, BJP 10 per cent, AAP 2 per cent and others 10 per cent votes respectively. The Congress is doing very well in Telangana region and the YSR Congress Party is doing very well in Seemandhra region.
In Telangana region, the support for the new state is near total with 95 per cent voters backing its creation. Just 2 per cent are opposing the division and 3 per cent have no opinion.
In Seemandhra region, 80 per cent are opposing the division of state. Just 7 per cent are backing the division and 13 per cent have no opinion.
Even in Telangana region, most Congress supporters feel that the Congress at the Centre handled the issue very badly. Interestingly, the chief minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy is more popular than the Congress MPs and ministers from Seemandhra region.
Opposition to Hyderabad as joint capital
Most people are opposing the move to make Hyderabad joint capital of the two states for 10 years. Opposition to such a move is greater in Telangana than in Seemandhra. Just 12 per cent voters are favouring such a move while 49 per cent from across the state are opposing it. Most in Seemandhra want Union Territory status for Hyderabad. There is a strong opposition to it in Telangana.
A total of 44 per cent respondents in Rayalaseema want Kurnool as the new capital of Seemandhra. But, respondents from coastal Andhra favour Vishakhapatnam and Vijayawada as new capital.
High level of dissatisfaction
A total of 55 per cent respondents are unhappy with the performance of Congress government in the state. In Telangana, it is 56 per cent and in Seemandhra it is 54 per cent respectively.
Andhra Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy is highly unpopular in Telangana region. His condition is slightly better in Seemandhra region.
However, the mood against Congress is stronger in Seemandhra than in Telangana region. A very high 70 per cent of the voters in Seemandhra feel that Congress should not get another chance and 42 per cent voters feel the same in Telangana region. The overall dissatisfaction figure is 52 per cent across the state.
Only one in 10 in Andhra wants to give the UPA another chance.
Modi leads PM race
While 22 per cent respondents across Andhra favour Narendra Modi for the post of PM, Rahul Gandhi get the backing of 15 per cent. Among the local leaders, both YS Jagan Mohan Reddy and N Chandrababu Naidu have got 1 per cent each. Arvind Kejriwal of the AAP has also got 1 per cent backing for the post of PM.
ANDHRA PRADESH
Seat Projections (Seats: 42)
Party/Front | Projected Seats |
YRS CONG | 11-19 |
TDP | 9-15 |
INC | 5-9 |
TRS | 4-8 |
OTH | 0-4 |
Seat projections by Prof Rajeeva Karandikar, director, Chennai Mathematical Institute
Projected vote share if Lok Sabha elections are held now in Andhra Pradesh (January 2014)
Party | 2009 Actual | July 2013 Estimated Vote | January 2014 Estimated Vote |
INC | 39 | 32 | 24 |
BJP | 4 | 7 | 10 |
YSR Cong | - | 20 | 22 |
TDP | 25 | 17 | 21 |
TRS | 6 | 13 | 11 |
AAP | - | - | 2 |
Others | 26 | 11 | 10 |
UNDECIDED VOTERS IN JULY 2013 – 15%
UNDECIDED VOTERS IN JANUARY 2014 – 8%
All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Vote share estimates are based on the voting intentions declared by respondents through a secret dummy ballot. These raw figures have been adjusted by the CSDS team for the known patterns of under-reporting for independents and very small party and over-reporting for the ruling party/alliance to arrive at the vote share estimates presented here. Undecided voters are those who did not disclose their vote preference. They have been excluded while deciding the estimated vote share. Estimates for 2013 based on the Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in July 2013. Estimate for 2014 based on the Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in January 2014. AAP was not on the dummy ballot paper in the July 2013 survey hence no separate vote share estimate for the party was made.
Sample size for 2013 was 1681; Sample size for 2014 is 1506
Estimated party vote share for Telangana if Lok Sabha elections are held now
Party | January 2014 Estimated Vote (%) | Change since July 2013 Estimate (% points) |
INC | 33 | +6 |
BJP | 11 | 0 |
YSR Cong | 1 | -4 |
TDP | 13 | -1 |
TRS | 23 | -1 |
AAP | 3 | +3 |
Others | 16 | -3 |
All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Sample size for 2014 is 719; Sample size in 2013 was 889
Estimated party vote share for Seemandhara if Lok Sabha elections are held now
Party | January 2014 Estimated Vote (%) | Change since July 2013 Estimate (% points) |
INC | 16 | -21 |
BJP | 9 | +7 |
YSR Cong | 41 | +4 |
TDP | 28 | +9 |
TRS | 0 | 0 |
AAP | 1 | +1 |
Others | 5 | 0 |
All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Sample size for 2014 is 787; Sample size in 2013 was 792
Support for Central govt’s decision to create separate Telangana state from Andhra Pradesh
80 percent of those in Seemandhara opposed to division of the state
Telangana | Seemandhara | |||
2013 | 2014 | 2013 | 2014 | |
Support division | 79 | 95 | 6 | 7 |
Oppose division | 8 | 2 | 67 | 80 |
Can’t say | 13 | 3 | 27 | 13 |
1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in July 2013 and January 2014.
3. Sample size for 2014 in Telangana is 719; Sample size for 2013 in Telangana was 889; Sample size for 2014 in Seemandhara is 787; Sample size for 2013 in Seemandhara was 792.
4. Question asked in 2014: Do you support the Central government’s decision to carve out a separate Telangana state from Andhra Pradesh or do you oppose it and want the state to remain united?
5. Question asked in 2013: People have different opinions on the issue of a separate Telangana state. Some people say that Andhra should be bifurcated into Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, while some say that the state should be trifurcated into Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Rayalaseema. Others say that Andhra Pradesh should continue as a united state. What is your opinion on the issue?
Opinion on Cong’s role in bifurcation issue (among those who have heard about it)
Even in Telangana and among Congress voters, Cong’s handling of bifurcation issue rated poorly
Telangana | Seemandhara | INC voters | |
Cong has handled it well | 31 | 3 | 32 |
Cong has handled it poorly | 33 | 79 | 32 |
Can’t say | 35 | 18 | 36 |
1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Andhra Pradesh in January 2014.
3. Sample size for Telangana is 663; Sample size for Seemandhara is 668.
4. Question asked: (If heard of decision to bifurcate AP) How do you view the role of the Congress in the entire bifurcation issue? Has the party handled the issue well or has it handled the issue poorly?
Level of satisfaction with pressure put by Cong ministers, MPs on Central govt to reconsider decision (responses of those who oppose division)
Among those who oppose division of state, most people are dissatisfied with the pressure put by Andhra CM, Congress MPs and Union Ministers on the Central govt to reconsider decision; Kiran Kumar Reddy however viewed more favorably than his party MPs and Union Ministers
Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Can’t say | |
Union Ministers from Seemandhara | 11 | 65 | 24 |
Congress MPs from Seemandhara | 11 | 65 | 24 |
Chief Minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy | 25 | 50 | 25 |
1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Andhra Pradesh in January 2014.
3. Sample size is 644.
4. Question asked: Are you satisfied with the pressure put by the following on the Central government to reconsider its decision to bifurcate Andhra Pradesh? a. Union Ministers from Seemandhara b. Congress MPs from Seemandhara c. Chief Minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy
Should Hyderabad be joint capital for 10 years?
Most people oppose move to make Hyderabad joint capital of two states for ten years; opposition is greater in Telangana than in Seemandhara
Overall | Telangana | Seemandhara | |
Yes | 12 | 8 | 15 |
No | 49 | 57 | 42 |
Makes no difference | 7 | 6 | 8 |
Can’t say | 32 | 29 | 35 |
1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Andhra Pradesh in January 2014.
3. Sample size for overall is 1506
4. Question asked: In the event of a bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh, do you support the proposal to make Hyderabad the joint capital of Telangana and the residual state for a period of 10 years?
Should Hyderabad be granted UT status after bifurcation?
Most in Seemandhara region want Hyderabad to be made into a Union Territory; in Telangana there is strong opposition to it
Overall | Telangana | Seemandhara | |
Yes | 22 | 7 | 36 |
No | 38 | 56 | 22 |
Can’t say | 40 | 37 | 43 |
1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Andhra Pradesh in January 2014.
3. Sample size for overall is 1506.
4. Question asked: Should Union Territory status be granted to Hyderabad in the event of a bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh?
Should the districts of Anantapur and Kurnool be merged with the proposed Telangana state to form a larger Rayala-Telangana state?
Overall | Telangana | Seemandhara | Respondents in Anantapur and Kurnool districts | |
Yes | 8 | 1 | 16 | 30 |
No | 50 | 62 | 38 | 43 |
Can’t say | 42 | 37 | 46 | 27 |
1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Andhra Pradesh in January 2014.
3. Sample size for overall is 1506; Sample size for Anantapur and Kurnool districts is 197 and hence figures should be read with caution.
4. Question asked: Should the districts of Anantapur and Kurnool be merged with the proposed Telangana state to form a larger Rayala-Telangana state?
Which city in your view is most suitable to become the capital of Seemandhara?
Most respondents in Rayalaseema want Kurnool to be new capital of Seemandhara whereas respondents in Coastal Andhra favour Vishakhapatnam or Vijayawada
Overall | Coastal Andhra | Rayalaseema | |
Kurnool | 13 | 5 | 44 |
Visakhapatnam | 9 | 22 | 3 |
Vijayawada | 14 | 24 | 3 |
Tirupati | 3 | 0 | 8 |
Guntur | 7 | 15 | 2 |
Kakinada | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Continue to be Hyderabad | 7 | 12 | 14 |
Other | 3 | 2 | 8 |
Can’t say | 42 | 16 | 19 |
1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Andhra Pradesh in January 2014.
3. Sample size for overall is 1506; Sample size for Coastal Andhra is 469 and for Rayalaseema is 318
4. Question asked: In the event of a bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh in the future, which city in your view is most suitable to become the capital of the residual state? (Do not read the answer categories)
Will Congress benefit electorally in Telangana from decision to create Telangana
Most people in Telangana of the opinion that the Congress will benefit electorally in Telangana due to bifurcation decision, however 18 percent also of the opinion that the Congress will only benefit if Telangana is created before Lok Sabha elections
Telangana responses | |
Yes | 34 |
No | 7 |
Only if Telangana is created before LS polls | 18 |
Can’t say | 42 |
1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Andhra Pradesh in January 2014.
3. Sample size is 670.
4. Question asked: (To be asked only in Telangana region) Do you think the Congress will benefit electorally in Telangana now that the Central government has decided to create a separate Telangana state?
Support for possible pre-poll alliances for LS polls in Andhra Pradesh
TDP and BJP voters most enthusiastic about an alliance between the two parties; Cong voters most supportive of an alliance with TRS; interestingly BJP voters also show a high interest in such an alliance
Overall support | INC voters | TRS voters | BJP voters | TDP voters | YSR Cong voters | |
YSR Congress and BJP | 9 | 6 | 1 | 18 | 3 | 23 |
TDP and BJP | 20 | 10 | 6 | 45 | 44 | 11 |
TRS and Congress | 14 | 25 | 16 | 22 | 6 | 5 |
Congress and YSR Congress | 9 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off; the rest did not support or could not say; answers are to separate questions; Weighted Data.
2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Andhra Pradesh in January 2014.
3. Sample size for overall is 1506
4. Question asked: Now I will read out the names of a few possible pre election alliances in Andhra Pradesh for the Lok Sabha elections. Please tell me for each alliance, whether you support it or oppose it?
Party to vote for if assembly elections in state are held tomorrow?
If assembly elections are held now it is likely to be a neck and neck race between TRS and Congress in Telangana; YSR Cong likely to be way ahead in Seemandhara followed by TDP
Andhra Pradesh Overall | Telangana | Seemandhara | |
INC | 19 | 29 | 11 |
TRS | 15 | 31 | 1 |
TDP | 22 | 13 | 30 |
YSR Cong | 25 | 1 | 48 |
BJP | 3 | 5 | 1 |
Others | 16 | 21 | 9 |
1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Andhra Pradesh in January 2014.
3. Sample size for overall is 1506. Sample size for Telangana is 719; Sample size for Seemandhara is 787.
4. Question asked: If assembly elections are held in Andhra Pradesh tomorrow, then which party will you vote for?
(Supply yellow ballot paper and explain. Note down answer later and code from codebook)
Satisfaction with performance of the State Cong govt
Dissatisfaction with Congress government in Andhra Pradesh high in both Telangana and Seemandhara; has risen since July 2013
Overall | Telangana 2014 | Seemandhara 2014 | ||
2013 | 2014 | |||
Satisfied | 41 | 31 | 30 | 32 |
Dissatisfied | 45 | 55 | 56 | 54 |
Can’t say | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Andhra Pradesh in July 2013 and January 2014.
3. Sample size for overall in 2014 is 1506; Sample size in 2013 was 1681
4. Question asked: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the Congress government in
Andhra Pradesh over the last four/4 ½ years? (Probe further whether ‘fully’ or ‘somewhat’ satisfied or dissatisfied).
Satisfaction with performance of the N Kiran Kumar Reddy as CM of Andhra Pradesh
Dissatisfaction with N Kiran Kumar Reddy’s performance as CM much greater in Telangana than in Seemandhara
Overall | Telangana | Seemandhara | |
Satisfied | 37 | 31 | 44 |
Dissatisfied | 54 | 62 | 46 |
Can’t say | 9 | 7 | 10 |
1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Andhra Pradesh in January 2014.
3. Sample size for overall is 1506
4. Question asked: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of N Kiran Kumar Reddy as the chief minister of
Andhra Pradesh over the last three years? (Probe further whether ‘fully’ or ‘somewhat’ satisfied or dissatisfied).
Should the Congress govt in Andhra Pradesh get another chance?
Mood against the Congress state government stronger in Seemandhara than in Telangana
Overall | Telangana 2014 | Seemandhara 2014 | ||
2013 | 2014 | |||
Yes | 20 | 14 | 17 | 11 |
No | 46 | 56 | 42 | 70 |
Can’t say | 34 | 30 | 42 | 19 |
1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Andhra Pradesh in July 2013 and January 2014.
3. Sample size for overall in 2014 is 1506; Sample size in 2013 was 1681
4. Question asked: Suppose assembly elections are held in your state tomorrow, should the present Congress government in
Andhra Pradesh get another chance?
Satisfaction with performance of UPA govt.
Dissatisfaction with UPA government has risen in Andhra Pradesh in last six months
Opinion in Andhra Pradesh | ||
2013 | 2014 | |
Satisfied | 31 | 25 |
Dissatisfied | 41 | 52 |
Can’t say | 28 | 23 |
1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Andhra Pradesh in July 2013 and January 2014.
3. Sample size in 2014 is 1506; Sample size in 2013 was 1681
4. Question asked: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre over the last four/four and a half years? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied)
Satisfaction with performance of Manmohan Singh as PM in Andhra Pradesh
Dissatisfaction with Manmohan Singh’s performance has also gone up since last July
Overall | ||
2013 | 2014 | |
Satisfied | 30 | 26 |
Dissatisfied | 24 | 41 |
Can’t say | 46 | 33 |
1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Andhra Pradesh in July 2013 and January 2014.
3. Sample size in 2014 is 1506; Sample size in 2013 was 1681 4. Question asked: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Manmohan Singh’s performance as the Prime Minister? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied)
Should the UPA govt. get another chance after the 2014 Lok Sabha election?
Only one in ten in Andhra Pradesh want to give the UPA Central government another chance
Opinion in Andhra Pradesh | ||
2013 | 2014 | |
Yes | 20 | 12 |
No | 30 | 45 |
Can’t say | 51 | 43 |
1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Andhra Pradesh in July 2013 and January 2014.
3. Sample size in 2014 is 1506; Sample size in 2013 was 1681.
4. Question asked: Should the Congress-led UPA government get another chance after the 2014 Lok Sabha election?
Prime Minister choice in Andhra Pradesh
Popularity of Modi increases by three times in Andhra Pradesh but Rahul still leads Modi in Telangana
Overall | Telangana 2014 | Seemandhara 2014 | ||
2013 | 2014 | |||
Narendra Modi | 7 | 22 | 20 | 23 |
Rahul Gandhi | 9 | 15 | 22 | 9 |
Sonia Gandhi | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Manmohan Singh | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Y S Jaganmohan Reddy | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
N Chandrababu Naidu | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Arvind Kejriwal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Others | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Can’t say | 70 | 56 | 52 | 61 |
1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, hence they may not add up to 100. Weighted Data.
2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Andhra Pradesh in July 2013 and January 2014.
3. Sample size in 2014 is 1506; Sample size in 2013 was 1681 4. Question asked: Who would you prefer as the Prime Minister of the country after the next/2014 Lok Sabha election?
AAP impact in Andhra Pradesh
Only one third of the respondents in Andhra Pradesh had heard of AAP, very few want it to contest from their seat and only seven percent showed interest in voting for it in LS polls
Heard of AAP | 33 |
Want AAP to contest from their seat | 9 |
Inclined to vote for AAP in LS polls | 7 |
1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off; figures are for three separate questions; rest had not heard, do not want it to contest from their seat and are not inclined to vote for it in AAP polls; Weighted Data.
2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Andhra Pradesh in January 2014.
3. Sample size is 1506 4. Question asked: Have you heard about the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)? (If heard) Would you want AAP to contest the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections from your Constituency? (If heard) If AAP contests from your Lok Sabha constituency, would you vote for it?
METHODOLOGY OF LOKNITI-IBN TRACKER SURVEY- ROUND 2 (JANUARY 2014)
The findings presented here are based on a tracker survey conducted in 18 States of India by Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi between January 5 and January 15, 2014. The data for the survey was collected through face to face interviews amongst 18,591 voters spread across 1081 locations of 291 randomly selected Parliamentary constituencies in 18 States. 267 of the 291 parliamentary constituencies were the same as those sampled for the first round of tracker survey conducted by Lokniti in July 2013. 24 constituencies were sampled additionally for the second round. In each state, the Parliamentary constituencies and assembly segment/segments within a selected Parliamentary Constituency were randomly selected using the Probability Proportionate to Size sampling technique (PPS). In each Assembly segment three to four polling stations (differed from state to state) were selected using the systematic random sampling technique. A total of 27,025 voters randomly selected from the most updated electoral rolls were approached for the interview, of which 18,591 could be successfully interviewed. In round two, interviews in 267 parliamentary constituencies were conducted among the same set of respondents who were sampled for round one of the tracker survey (see Table 1)
Lokniti-IBN Tracker (Round 2) - Distribution of Targeted and achieved sample
States | Number of PCs surveyed | No of ACs surveyed | Number of polling stations surveyed | Targeted sample | Achieved sample size |
Andhra Pradesh | 24 | 25 | 75 | 1875 | 1506 |
Assam | 7 | 7 | 28 | 700 | 462 |
Bihar | 24 | 25 | 75 | 1875 | 1317 |
Chhattisgarh | 9 | 9 | 36 | 900 | 542 |
Delhi | 7 | 12 | 48 | 1200 | 951 |
Gujarat | 13 | 13 | 52 | 1300 | 836 |
Haryana | 8 | 8 | 32 | 800 | 559 |
Jharkhand | 10 | 11 | 44 | 1100 | 972 |
Karnataka | 13 | 13 | 52 | 1300 | 830 |
Kerala | 11 | 12 | 48 | 1200 | 807 |
Madhya Pradesh | 15 | 17 | 51 | 1275 | 936 |
Maharashtra | 30 | 30 | 90 | 2250 | 1224 |
Odisha | 15 | 15 | 60 | 1500 | 978 |
Punjab | 9 | 9 | 36 | 900 | 704 |
Rajasthan | 17 | 17 | 51 | 1275 | 960 |
Tamil Nadu | 16 | 16 | 60 | 1500 | 909 |
Uttar Pradesh | 41 | 42 | 168 | 4200 | 2834 |
West Bengal | 22 | 25 | 75 | 1875 | 1264 |
TOTAL | 291 | 306 | 1081 | 27025 | 18591 |
Women comprise 44.2 per cent of the sample. 19.2 percent of the sample consists of Scheduled Caste respondents and 7.4 per cent is made up of Adivasis. Muslims constitute 11.6 per cent of the sample and respondents from urban areas are 24.5 per cent of the sample. These numbers, when compared with actual Census figures by and large reflect the representative nature of the sample, although there is a slight over representation of SCs and a slight under representation of women and STs. The underrepresentation of these categories as well as Urban was taken into account while doing the analysis (see Table 2).
Tracker Round 2 - Sample profile compared to Census
Categories | Share in Survey sample (%) | Actual Share in population of 18 states surveyed (average %) |
Urban | 24.5 | 34.7 |
Women | 44.2 | 48.6 |
Muslim | 11.6 | 11.8 |
SC | 19.2 | 16.2 |
ST | 7.4 | 9.7 |
Figures for actual proportion of SCs, STs, Women and Urban in the total population are from Census 2011. Figures for actual proportion of Muslims in the total population are from Census 2001.
The interview was conducted face to face at the place of residence of the respondent using a standard structured questionnaire in the language spoken and understood by the respondent. The voting question was asked using a dummy ballot paper and dummy ballot box to ensure secrecy. The estimate of vote shares for different political parties are based on a careful analysis of the respondents’ stated preference of voting for a party as marked on the ballot paper, which carried the elections symbols of all the major political parties in the State. Since all surveys suffer from the problem of over-estimation of votes for big parties and underestimation for smaller parties, the estimate of vote shares was made after carefully adjusting the vote share of smaller parties and independents as base. A comparison of the proportion of important social categories in the total survey sample of a State with their actual proportion in the population of that State was also made while deciding the state-wise estimate of vote shares.
The total of 18,591 completed interviews is not uniformly spread in all the 18 states where the survey was conducted. The sample in big states like Uttar Pradesh (2834), Maharashtra (1224), Andhra Pradesh (1506), West Bengal (1264), Bihar (1317), Madhya Pradesh (936) is bigger compared to some smaller states like Haryana (559) Chhattisgarh (542) and Assam (462). While reading the table of vote shares, it may be appropriate to remind the reader that there is greater confidence on the vote share estimates for parties in States where the sample is bigger, compared to states where the sample is small.
The survey was designed and analysed by a team of researchers at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi. The team included Anuradha Singh, Ashish Ranjan, Dhananjai Kumar Singh, Himanshu Bhattacharya, K.A.Q.A Hilal, Kanchan Malhotra, Jyoti Mishra, Nitin Mehta, Rahul Verma, Shreyas Sardesai and Vibha Attri. Professor Suhas Palshikar and Professor Sandeep Shastri provided their suggestions during the entire exercise. The survey was directed at the national level by Sanjay Kumar.
The survey was coordinated by scholars from the Lokniti Network: E Venkatesu (Andhra Pradesh), Subhrajeet Konwar (Assam), Rakesh Ranjan (Bihar), Anupama Saxena and Shamshad Ansari (Chhattisgarh), Biswajeet Mohanty (Delhi), Bhanu Parmar and Mahashweta Jani (Gujarat), Kushal Pal (Haryana) , Harishwar Dayal (Jharkhand), Veena Devi and Reetika Syal (Karnataka), Sajad Ibrahim (Kerala), Yatindra Singh Sisodia (Madhya Pradesh), Nitin Birmal (Maharashtra), Prabhat Mohanty and Pramod K Ray (Orissa), Jagroop Singh Sekhon (Punjab), Sanjay Lodha and Nidhi Seth (Rajasthan), Ramajayam (Tamil Nadu), A.K. Verma, Asmer Beg, and Sudhir Kumar (Uttar Pradesh), Suprio Basu (West Bengal) .
Sample profile for Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal and Assam
States | Total sample size in survey | Women | Muslim* | Urban | SC | ST | |||||
Census | Survey | Census | Survey | Census | Survey | Census | Survey | Census | Survey | ||
Bihar | 1317 | 47.8 | 42.8 | 16.5 | 15.3 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 15.9 | 19.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
Jharkhand | 972 | 48.6 | 41.5 | 13.8 | 15.3 | 24.0 | 15.6 | 12.0 | 16.6 | 26.2 | 14.9 |
Odisha | 978 | 49.4 | 44.8 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 16.0 | 7.5 | 17.1 | 25.9 | 22.8 | 7.8 |
West Bengal | 1264 | 48.7 | 48.7 | 25.2 | 25.2 | 31.8 | 11.9 | 23.5 | 29.5 | 5.8 | 7.5 |
Assam | 462 | 48.9 | 42.3 | 30.9 | 15.8 | 15.3 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 15.0 | 12.4 | 26.0 |
Note: Census figures for women, urban, SCs and STs are from Census 2011; *Census figures for Muslims are from Census 2001
Sample profile for Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu
States | Total sample size in survey | Women | Muslim* | Urban | SC | ST | |||||
Census | Survey | Census | Survey | Census | Survey | Census | Survey | Census | Survey | ||
Andhra Pradesh | 1506 | 49.8 | 49.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 33.3 | 18.9 | 16.4 | 21.7 | 7.0 | 4.6 |
Karnataka | 830 | 49.3 | 43.6 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 40.5 | 27.3 | 17.1 | 26.0 | 6.9 | 9.3 |
Kerala | 807 | 52.0 | 50.4 | 24.6 | 20.9 | 47.1 | 12.8 | 9.1 | 17.2 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
Tamil Nadu | 909 | 49.9 | 49.8 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 48.5 | 31.0 | 20.0 | 19.0 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
Note: Census figures for women, urban, SCs and STs are from Census 2011; *Census figures for Muslims are from Census 2001
Sample profile for Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh
States | Total sample size in survey | Women | Muslim* | Urban | SC | ST | |||||
Census | Survey | Census | Survey | Census | Survey | Census | Survey | Census | Survey | ||
Gujarat | 836 | 47.8 | 47.2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 44.6 | 41.8 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 14.7 | 15.2 |
Madhya Pradesh | 936 | 48.2 | 40.9 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 26.5 | 9.1 | 15.6 | 15.9 | 21.1 | 22.1 |
Maharashtra | 1224 | 48.1 | 47.1 | 10.6 | 7.7 | 45.9 | 37.9 | 11.8 | 13.5 | 9.3 | 6.5 |
Chhattisgarh | 542 | 49.7 | 46.7 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 23.2 | 19.2 | 12.8 | 12.0 | 30.6 | 21.0 |
Note: Census figures for women, urban, SCs and STs are from Census 2011; *Census figures for Muslims are from Census 2001
Sample profile for Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana
States | Total sample size in survey | Women | Muslim* | Urban | SC | ST | |||||
Census | Survey | Census | Survey | Census | Survey | Census | Survey | Census | Survey | ||
Delhi | 951 | 46.4 | 46.0 | 11.7 | 9.3 | - | - | 16.8 | 18.0 | - | - |
Haryana | 559 | 46.7 | 40.3 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 34.8 | 35.1 | 20.1 | 26.8 | - | - |
Punjab | 704 | 47.2 | 44.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 37.4 | 31.4 | 31.9 | 16.1 | - | - |
Rajasthan | 960 | 48.1 | 41.4 | 8.4 | 14.9 | 24.8 | 19.3 | 17.8 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 17.0 |
Uttar Pradesh | 2834 | 47.7 | 37.7 | 18.5 | 17.6 | 22.2 | 24.0 | 20.6 | 20.7 | 0.5 | - |
Note: Census figures for women, urban, SCs and STs are from Census 2011; *Census figures for Muslims are from Census 2001
Lokniti-IBN Tracker (Round 2) - Profile of the achieved sample in 18 states
States | Women | Muslim* | Urban | SC | ST | |||||
Census | Survey | Census | Survey | Census | Survey | Census | Survey | Census | Survey | |
Andhra Pradesh | 49.8 | 49.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 33.3 | 18.9 | 16.4 | 21.7 | 7.0 | 4.6 |
Assam | 48.9 | 42.3 | 30.9 | 15.8 | 15.3 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 15.0 | 12.4 | 26.0 |
Bihar | 47.8 | 42.8 | 16.5 | 15.3 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 15.9 | 19.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
Chhattisgarh | 49.7 | 46.7 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 23.2 | 19.2 | 12.8 | 12.0 | 30.6 | 21.0 |
Delhi | 46.4 | 46.0 | 11.7 | 9.3 | - | - | 16.8 | 18.0 | - | - |
Gujarat | 47.8 | 47.2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 44.6 | 41.8 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 14.7 | 15.2 |
Haryana | 46.7 | 40.3 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 34.8 | 35.1 | 20.1 | 26.8 | - | - |
Jharkhand | 48.6 | 41.5 | 13.8 | 15.3 | 24.0 | 15.6 | 12.0 | 16.6 | 26.2 | 14.9 |
Karnataka | 49.3 | 43.6 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 40.5 | 27.3 | 17.1 | 26.0 | 6.9 | 9.3 |
Kerala | 52.0 | 50.4 | 24.6 | 20.9 | 47.1 | 12.8 | 9.1 | 17.2 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
Madhya Pradesh | 48.2 | 40.9 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 26.5 | 9.1 | 15.6 | 15.9 | 21.1 | 22.1 |
Maharashtra | 48.1 | 47.1 | 10.6 | 7.7 | 45.9 | 37.9 | 11.8 | 13.5 | 9.3 | 6.5 |
Odisha | 49.4 | 44.8 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 16.0 | 7.5 | 17.1 | 25.9 | 22.8 | 7.8 |
Punjab | 47.2 | 44.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 37.4 | 31.4 | 31.9 | 16.1 | - | - |
Rajasthan | 48.1 | 41.4 | 8.4 | 14.9 | 24.8 | 19.3 | 17.8 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 17.0 |
Tamil Nadu | 49.9 | 49.8 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 48.5 | 31.0 | 20.0 | 19.0 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
Uttar Pradesh | 47.7 | 37.7 | 18.5 | 17.6 | 22.2 | 24.0 | 20.6 | 20.7 | 0.5 | - |
West Bengal | 48.7 | 48.7 | 25.2 | 25.2 | 31.8 | 11.9 | 23.5 | 29.5 | 5.8 | 7.5 |
Note: Census figures for women, urban, SCs and STs are from Census 2011; *Census figures for Muslims are from Census 2001
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